The article is devoted to the issues of climate change in the climatic quasi-homogeneous region of the North Caucasus and the connection between climate change and the causes of natural and forest fires. The series of observations covers 10 years (2014–2023) and is based on monthly climate reviews of VNIIGMI-WCD. In annual reports, monthly maps were studied to determine the predominant color in the shading of the territory of a selected climatic quasi-homogeneous region. For air temperature anomalies, the red color and its shades indicated a positive deviation, and the blue color and its shades indicated a negative deviation. Using maps of deviations of precipitation from the norm, the “humidity” and “dryness” of climatic quasi-homogeneous regions were determined depending on the predominant color of the territory. Regions shaded in yellow were considered “dry”; regions shaded in green were considered “wet”. In the first five-year plan (2014–2018), a positive temperature anomaly in the North Caucasus was observed in 49 out of 60 months, in the second five-year plan (2019–2023) – 45 out of 60 months, and in just 10 years – 94 out of 120 months. In terms of humidity in the first five-year plan an increase in humidity relative to the norm was observed in 32 out of 56 months, in the second - 35 out of 59 months, and in just 10 years (2014–2023) - 67 out of 115 months. Information on the number of natural and forest fires was taken from the Vega-Science system using summation daily information on the number of fires and the area covered by the fire. The maximum number of natural fires in the decade (2014–2023) occurred in 2020, forest fires (i.e., fires on forest lands) in 2019, and the largest forest area covered by fire was observed in 2021. There is no clear correlation between the average annual temperature and annual precipitation with fires, but, in general, global warming contributes to an increase in the number of fires and an increase in precipitation.

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Climate Change and Causes of Natural Fires

  • V. I. Akselevich,
  • A. R. Ioshpa

摘要

The article is devoted to the issues of climate change in the climatic quasi-homogeneous region of the North Caucasus and the connection between climate change and the causes of natural and forest fires. The series of observations covers 10 years (2014–2023) and is based on monthly climate reviews of VNIIGMI-WCD. In annual reports, monthly maps were studied to determine the predominant color in the shading of the territory of a selected climatic quasi-homogeneous region. For air temperature anomalies, the red color and its shades indicated a positive deviation, and the blue color and its shades indicated a negative deviation. Using maps of deviations of precipitation from the norm, the “humidity” and “dryness” of climatic quasi-homogeneous regions were determined depending on the predominant color of the territory. Regions shaded in yellow were considered “dry”; regions shaded in green were considered “wet”. In the first five-year plan (2014–2018), a positive temperature anomaly in the North Caucasus was observed in 49 out of 60 months, in the second five-year plan (2019–2023) – 45 out of 60 months, and in just 10 years – 94 out of 120 months. In terms of humidity in the first five-year plan an increase in humidity relative to the norm was observed in 32 out of 56 months, in the second - 35 out of 59 months, and in just 10 years (2014–2023) - 67 out of 115 months. Information on the number of natural and forest fires was taken from the Vega-Science system using summation daily information on the number of fires and the area covered by the fire. The maximum number of natural fires in the decade (2014–2023) occurred in 2020, forest fires (i.e., fires on forest lands) in 2019, and the largest forest area covered by fire was observed in 2021. There is no clear correlation between the average annual temperature and annual precipitation with fires, but, in general, global warming contributes to an increase in the number of fires and an increase in precipitation.