A web system for the analyzing unknown sources of radioactive pollution in the air was developed. With inverse modeling of atmospheric transport using the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART and the newly developed minimization module SIMFLEX, it allows to automate the solving of the inverse problem when radioactive pollution in the air is detected. The probability density distribution of the source location, estimates of release start time, duration, and inventory are visualized on a cartographic basis. Testing of the system was performed using measurement data collected during an incident with the detection of ruthenium-106 in the atmosphere in the fall of 2017. With the developed system, the estimated source location that minimized the cost function was closer to the most probable source (Mayak, Chelyabinsk region of the Russian Federation) than in previous calculations, which were based on the use of an identical set of measurements and Eulerian long-range atmospheric transport model. Presently the system is implemented for use by the radiology experts of the Ukrainian Hydro-meteorological Center.

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Pilot System for Possible Sources of Radioactive Air Pollution Analysis Using Inverse Modeling

  • Ivan Kovalets,
  • Roman Synkevych,
  • Svitlana Maistrenko,
  • Kostyantyn Khurtsilava,
  • Taras Dontsov-Zagreba

摘要

A web system for the analyzing unknown sources of radioactive pollution in the air was developed. With inverse modeling of atmospheric transport using the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART and the newly developed minimization module SIMFLEX, it allows to automate the solving of the inverse problem when radioactive pollution in the air is detected. The probability density distribution of the source location, estimates of release start time, duration, and inventory are visualized on a cartographic basis. Testing of the system was performed using measurement data collected during an incident with the detection of ruthenium-106 in the atmosphere in the fall of 2017. With the developed system, the estimated source location that minimized the cost function was closer to the most probable source (Mayak, Chelyabinsk region of the Russian Federation) than in previous calculations, which were based on the use of an identical set of measurements and Eulerian long-range atmospheric transport model. Presently the system is implemented for use by the radiology experts of the Ukrainian Hydro-meteorological Center.