The transport of dangerous goods will always be potentially risky: this is due to the new substances that are accepted for transport; by increasing the speed of cargo delivery; stricter requirements for ensuring traffic safety when transporting dangerous goods. Therefore, the entire system of organizing the transportation of dangerous goods, which objectively involves huge risks, needs a systematic approach for its improvement (optimization). The study includes the analysis of relationships between various factors, such as the size of freight train movements, the average gross train weight on a specific railway line, and others, with the risk of occurrence of transport events of various classifications. The work presents the method of determining analytical dependencies for building mathematical models of transport events taking into account statistical data and probabilistic characteristics. The relationships between various factors, such as the size of freight train movements, the average gross train mass on a specific railway line, and others, with the risk of occurrence of transport events of various classifications, were analyzed. The results of the study will include simple mathematical models that will allow to estimate the probability of the occurrence of transport events at various stages of the cargo delivery route, including sorting stations and cargo fronts. The classification of transport events involving dangerous is proposed goods with division into groups that take into account the degree of potential consequences.