The Influence of Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Interest Rate Variations on Stock Returns of Companies Listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange
摘要
The study aims to identify the extent of exchange rates change and interest on Istanbul Stock Exchange returns. It follows the analysis of dynamic overlaps between Istanbul Stock Exchange and key economic indicators in Turkey using Wavelet analysis and Wavelet coherence techniques. Also, the study focuses on three basic indicators: the returns of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST100), changes in interest rates and changes in the exchange rate of the United States dollar against the Turkish lira from January 2000 to January 2024.In addition, the dataset includes monthly observations of the earnings of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST100), and the price of the dollar versus the Turkish lira and interest rates. The study finds that the Wavelet analysis showed the BIST100 movement was in line with broader economic trends and economic cycles, and that fluctuations in interest rates were linked to global financial crises and domestic monetary policies, and that the BIST100 movement was not only a result of economic trends, but also of the global financial crises and domestic monetary policies. On the other hand, the price of the dollar for the Turkish lira reflects shifts in economic policy and periods of political instability. The results have also concluded that there is coherence between BIST100 returns and the price of the dollar for the Turkish lira and interest rates. These relationships may be affected by external economic conditions, domestic economic policies. Moreover, major events such as global financial crises and changes in domestic monetary policies may have a profound and continuing impact on Turkey’s market and other economic indicators.