Extreme events are those that occur relatively rarely and cause large or key changes to a system (Stewart et al. 2022). These events are associated with an exceptional situation and are defined by a threshold value that, when crossed, results in the system’s inability to accommodate the effects of the change. Consequently, the system may become unstable. The knowledge of threshold values or levels that define the extremity of an event is based on long-term observations (climate systems), fossil evidence (glaciations, megafloods, and tsunamis), or projections of the current data into the past or future (global climate warming and cooling). For example, from a statistical viewpoint, an extreme climatic event is defined as “an episode or occurrence in which a statistically rare or unusual climatic period alters ecosystem structure and/or function well outside the bounds of what is considered typical or normal variability” (Smith 2011). Any extreme event can be defined in terms of its rarity, which is calculated as a percentile value (for instance, 0.95 or 0.99) that separates the values above and below (Beniston and Stephenson 2004). This value will be, of course, different for different locations. Extreme events associated with natural hazards are also defined by the level of damage caused to man-made infrastructure and the number of fatalities (Chaudhary and Piracha 2021). These events are also referred to as catastrophes (Svensen 2009; Donatti et al. 2024). Different branches of science may have unique definitions of an extreme event or extremity. In geosciences, extreme events are seen as the effects of many complex, nonlinear systems in which various interdependent components and their interactions lead to disruptions in system balance and irregular behaviors (Surjalal Sharma et al. 2012). Such events are commonly associated with hazards and can have a significant negative impact on humans, infrastructure, or the environment (McPhillips et al. 2018). In ecology, a disturbance is related to the sudden partial or complete removal of biomass, which is a driver of change. An extreme event that leads to ecosystem changes, often stimulating a system to further develop, such as after a wildfire or windstorm, or causing its partial or complete destruction (e.g., deforestation, land cover change conversion to crop fields, or continental glaciation).

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Extreme Climate Event Modeling and Prediction with Machine Learning Methods

  • Łukasz Pawlik

摘要

Extreme events are those that occur relatively rarely and cause large or key changes to a system (Stewart et al. 2022). These events are associated with an exceptional situation and are defined by a threshold value that, when crossed, results in the system’s inability to accommodate the effects of the change. Consequently, the system may become unstable. The knowledge of threshold values or levels that define the extremity of an event is based on long-term observations (climate systems), fossil evidence (glaciations, megafloods, and tsunamis), or projections of the current data into the past or future (global climate warming and cooling). For example, from a statistical viewpoint, an extreme climatic event is defined as “an episode or occurrence in which a statistically rare or unusual climatic period alters ecosystem structure and/or function well outside the bounds of what is considered typical or normal variability” (Smith 2011). Any extreme event can be defined in terms of its rarity, which is calculated as a percentile value (for instance, 0.95 or 0.99) that separates the values above and below (Beniston and Stephenson 2004). This value will be, of course, different for different locations. Extreme events associated with natural hazards are also defined by the level of damage caused to man-made infrastructure and the number of fatalities (Chaudhary and Piracha 2021). These events are also referred to as catastrophes (Svensen 2009; Donatti et al. 2024). Different branches of science may have unique definitions of an extreme event or extremity. In geosciences, extreme events are seen as the effects of many complex, nonlinear systems in which various interdependent components and their interactions lead to disruptions in system balance and irregular behaviors (Surjalal Sharma et al. 2012). Such events are commonly associated with hazards and can have a significant negative impact on humans, infrastructure, or the environment (McPhillips et al. 2018). In ecology, a disturbance is related to the sudden partial or complete removal of biomass, which is a driver of change. An extreme event that leads to ecosystem changes, often stimulating a system to further develop, such as after a wildfire or windstorm, or causing its partial or complete destruction (e.g., deforestation, land cover change conversion to crop fields, or continental glaciation).