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The Russo-Ukrainian war has intensified the EU accession interest of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine and accelerated the enlargement processes in Southeast Europe. This chapter explores a possible scenario for the composition of the European Parliament in a fully enlarged European Union. The projection is based on official European election results and national seat projections, using the FPS method to simulate the composition of the European Parliament in an EU-37 scenario and to analyse potential impacts on the future political landscape of the EU. The findings offer insights into how enlargement could reshape political dynamics and decision-making processes within the European Union.

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From 27 to 37: A Possible Scenario for the Composition of the European Parliament in a Fully Enlarged European Union

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Oliver Schwarz

摘要

The Russo-Ukrainian war has intensified the EU accession interest of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine and accelerated the enlargement processes in Southeast Europe. This chapter explores a possible scenario for the composition of the European Parliament in a fully enlarged European Union. The projection is based on official European election results and national seat projections, using the FPS method to simulate the composition of the European Parliament in an EU-37 scenario and to analyse potential impacts on the future political landscape of the EU. The findings offer insights into how enlargement could reshape political dynamics and decision-making processes within the European Union.