This chapter documents and investigates the implementation of conflict early warning systems (CEWS) within European foreign policy administrations. These systems, designed to anticipate and prevent political violence, rely on the analysis of socio-economic and security-related data. Despite their technological promise, their relevance for policymaking remains contested. It finds that, while policymakers and office managers endorse these systems as tools for improving crisis management at all levels, desk analysts often express skepticism, viewing uncertainty as inherent to their work. This tension suggests that CEWS are perceived more as an extension of managerial logics rather than effective decision-making tools, as the normative literature suggests. Ultimately, while there is a gap between the intended purpose of CEWS and their practical reception within foreign policy institutions, the effects on conflict representations remain.

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Navigating the Administrative Landscape of Conflict Early Warning Systems: From Managerial Optimism to Bureaucratic Realities

  • Louise Beaumais

摘要

This chapter documents and investigates the implementation of conflict early warning systems (CEWS) within European foreign policy administrations. These systems, designed to anticipate and prevent political violence, rely on the analysis of socio-economic and security-related data. Despite their technological promise, their relevance for policymaking remains contested. It finds that, while policymakers and office managers endorse these systems as tools for improving crisis management at all levels, desk analysts often express skepticism, viewing uncertainty as inherent to their work. This tension suggests that CEWS are perceived more as an extension of managerial logics rather than effective decision-making tools, as the normative literature suggests. Ultimately, while there is a gap between the intended purpose of CEWS and their practical reception within foreign policy institutions, the effects on conflict representations remain.