Flash Flood Susceptibility and Inundation Mapping Using Shannon’s Entropy, Statistical Index, and HEC-RAS, in Jubba River Basin (Somalia)
摘要
Flash floods have a disproportionately severe impact on agriculture, infrastructure, animals, and human societies on a global scale. They, worsened by changes in global climatic conditions, continue to pose serious threats, particularly in regions without strong forecasting systems and effective mitigation measures. This chapter offers a detailed flood risk assessment for the Jubba River Basin, utilizing various statistical distributions, hydrological models, and flood susceptibility mapping techniques. Flood frequencies were calculated adopting Gumbel’s distribution and the log-Pearson Type III distribution for different return periods. Gumbel’s method produced higher discharge estimates, suggesting more extreme flood events. Water column elevations and areas prone to flooding were analyzed using Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods, revealing a steady rise in inundation risk over time. Flash flood susceptibility was assessed by examining 11 determining factors, containing altitude, slope, drainage density, and land use, using the Statistical Index (SI) and Shannon’s Entropy (SE) models. Both models provided insights into areas of low, medium, and high flood susceptibility, with the SI model identifying 11.39% of the basin as highly susceptible and the SE model identifying 6.05%. Model validity was ensured applying the ROC and AUC curves, with values of 0.912 for SI and 0.868 for SE, demonstrating strong predictive accuracy. The chapter outcomes focus the need for effective strategies for flood management, identifying key vulnerable areas, and providing a framework for better predicting flood behavior and enhancing disaster preparedness in the Jubba River Basin.