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For the development of reasonable future projection, electric demand forecasting has become more essential. Using historical data as inputs, future projection is a process that produces accurate predictions of the future electric demand of phenomena. In this research, electric demand future projection has made using the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA). Tamil Nadu (TN) power network has been adopted for this research study. Furthermore, there are two economic pointer of TN such as state GDP and populace have been adopted to enhance the future projections. Three scenarios have been considered and comparisons also made for better electric demand projections. The economic pointer of past data for has been collected from the year of 1986. From 1986 to 2011 years of date have been chosen for training the data and similarly the year from 2012 to 2022 have been chosen as testing the past data. Mean Avenge Error and Mean Absolute Range Normalized Error (MARNE) and Mean Average Percentage error have been chosen as fitness function as an error calculation between the past and estimated data of electric demand. In addition to that linear, quadratic and Logarithmic equations have been adopted for research to estimate the electric demand. Till the year 2033, projection has been made and validated with national electricity plan of India.

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The Scenarios Based Demand Forecasting Using Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) for TN Power Network

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • S. Amosedinakaran,
  • Mavuluru Sushmi,
  • Pasupulati Baburao,
  • S. Vinoth John Prakash,
  • P. Rajakumar,
  • A. Bhuvanesh

摘要

For the development of reasonable future projection, electric demand forecasting has become more essential. Using historical data as inputs, future projection is a process that produces accurate predictions of the future electric demand of phenomena. In this research, electric demand future projection has made using the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA). Tamil Nadu (TN) power network has been adopted for this research study. Furthermore, there are two economic pointer of TN such as state GDP and populace have been adopted to enhance the future projections. Three scenarios have been considered and comparisons also made for better electric demand projections. The economic pointer of past data for has been collected from the year of 1986. From 1986 to 2011 years of date have been chosen for training the data and similarly the year from 2012 to 2022 have been chosen as testing the past data. Mean Avenge Error and Mean Absolute Range Normalized Error (MARNE) and Mean Average Percentage error have been chosen as fitness function as an error calculation between the past and estimated data of electric demand. In addition to that linear, quadratic and Logarithmic equations have been adopted for research to estimate the electric demand. Till the year 2033, projection has been made and validated with national electricity plan of India.