Strategy Development Under Uncertainty
摘要
The indicated issues and challenges are considered in the perspective of development of Bangladesh. In this way, the Bangladesh Delta Plan is expected to take up a role in contributing to national development goals. Given the climate challenges, a long-term strategic vision, mission, and goals are formulated. However uncertainty about the way climate change and transboundary issues will develop and what the impact will be dominates the future perspective and decision making on the right measures for goal achievement. The country is extremely vulnerable to (climate change-induced) disasters due to its natural conditions and limited protection. The major rivers are, e.g., already highly erosion prone, which may increase with larger discharges due to climate change-related heavy rains and melting water from the Himalayas. Every year, around 50 ~ 60 thousand river erosion victims migrate towards the cities and chars and adapt to an altered way of living. There are other natural disasters as well, affecting lives and livelihood. A way to deal with uncertainties over time is creating plausible narratives of possible futures. These narratives are normally indicated as scenarios. To be more precise, they are external scenarios, meaning that the narratives are built on external drivers of change which cannot or hardly be influenced. Examples are climate, transboundary water issues, natural hazards, population growth, etc. The idea is that under each scenario the realization of the vision and goals is explored and that strategies and measures are identified accordingly. Strategies and measures which play an important role in multiple scenarios for realization of the vision and goals are considered to be robust with a high probability of being selected as preferred strategies and measures. This chapter presents the way uncertainty has been approached, in order to make adaptive decision making possible on effective strategies and measures.