The Application of LCA Data Uncertainty Analysis in the Sustainable Development Process
摘要
Environmental performance is increasingly being emphasized during the design phase. Although the lack of quantity and quality of data leads to inaccurate environmental results in the early stages of design, the ability of life cycle assessment (LCA) to influent environmental performance of the product is significant during this phase. This article aims to evaluate the data uncertainty of LCA during the design phase, integrate the data quality assessment results into the sustainability-oriented development process (NEP), and provide more accurate environmental influence information in the early stages of the design process to avoid major changes later. To that purpose, the life cycle inventory (LCI) data of hydrogen tank production based on pedigree matrix method is used to analyse the data quality of existing data in the early design stages. Methodologies are investigated which link these pedigree matrix methods to data of contribution analysis and probability distributions in order to predict data uncertainty in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) results. A framework will then be proposed which allows to decide if further data updating or process refinement is needed based the calculated uncertainty for the predicted LCIA result. Through data quality analysis the reliability of LCA results can be improved at early design stage, and according to combination with the sustainable development proc ess LCA can identify the environmental influence during design phase, to avoid the large-scale change due to that in the late stages of design.