Replications in Judgment and Decision Making: A Critical Review and Future Pathways
摘要
Judgment and Decision MakingDecision making(JDM)Judgment and Decision Making (JDM), an interdisciplinary field integrating psychologyPsychology, economics, management, and cognitive science, has provided substantial insights into human decision-making processes over the past 70 years. Despite its rich history, the field’s credibility relies on replicationReplication to validate findings across diverse contexts and enhance methodological rigor. This chapter examines the replication landscape within JDMJudgment and Decision Making (JDM), highlighting key milestones such as the "replication crisis" and major collaborative replication projects. We assess current replication efforts of JDMJudgment and Decision Making (JDM) effects using comprehensive sources, including academic databases and collaborative networks. Our review of over 100 studies (osf.io/j58t2) reveals a 44% success rate in replicationsReplication, with an additional 25% showing partial replication. Successfully replicated effects often involve well-established paradigms like economic games and numerous heuristicsHeuristics and biases. However, challenges persist in replicating priming effects and other subtle manipulations, such as incidental anchors and research on the unconscious thought advantage. The chapter underscores the importance of transparency practices and collaborative efforts in addressing replicationReplication challenges, ultimately aiming to strengthen the integrity of JDMJudgment and Decision Making (JDM) research.