This study examines Bitcoin’s market behavior from May 2018 to June 2023, employing advanced statistical techniques to uncover its underlying characteristics. The analysis reveals several key findings: Bitcoin’s returns exhibit a non-normal distribution, indicating a higher likelihood of extreme price movements. Periods of high volatility tend to persist in Bitcoin’s market. Past price movements have limited predictive power for future returns. Bitcoin’s volatility is not constant and negative price shocks often lead to increased volatility. Outlier analysis identifies significant market events impacting Bitcoin’s price. These findings underscore the volatile and unpredictable nature of Bitcoin, emphasizing the need for robust risk management strategies. Future research should explore comparative dynamics with other cryptocurrencies, employ time-series and machine learning techniques, and assess the impact of macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes to enhance understanding and investment strategies in the cryptocurrency market.

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Visualizing Bitcoin’s Evolution: Dimensionality Reduction and Stylized Facts Techniques

  • Huma Zafar,
  • Stelios Kapetanakis

摘要

This study examines Bitcoin’s market behavior from May 2018 to June 2023, employing advanced statistical techniques to uncover its underlying characteristics. The analysis reveals several key findings: Bitcoin’s returns exhibit a non-normal distribution, indicating a higher likelihood of extreme price movements. Periods of high volatility tend to persist in Bitcoin’s market. Past price movements have limited predictive power for future returns. Bitcoin’s volatility is not constant and negative price shocks often lead to increased volatility. Outlier analysis identifies significant market events impacting Bitcoin’s price. These findings underscore the volatile and unpredictable nature of Bitcoin, emphasizing the need for robust risk management strategies. Future research should explore comparative dynamics with other cryptocurrencies, employ time-series and machine learning techniques, and assess the impact of macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes to enhance understanding and investment strategies in the cryptocurrency market.