In the paper, based on the synergetic theory of adaptive-oriented business management with the framework of the Lorenz model, a model for assessing the adaptive potential is proposed taking into account the risk tolerance of the enterprise's activities, operating in the conditions of nonlinear dynamics of the entrepreneurial environment. At the same time, the authors understand the adaptive potential of the enterprise as the degree of consistency of the system components (the ability of the internal variables of the enterprise) to adapt to changing market conditions in order to obtain optimal profit and ensure the risk tolerance of the enterprise's activities. Within the framework of this model, it is important to apply the procedure for constructing a bifurcation diagram, based on the analysis of which it is possible to conduct an economic interpretation of the financial and economic stability of the enterprise and obtain a short-term forecast of the evolution of its activities under the influence of internal and external factors of the business environment. The results of the simulations indicate the adequacy and feasibility of applying the proposed model for assessing the adaptive potential of an enterprise in the modern practice of entrepreneurial risk management.