An Integrated Production-Waste-Harm Model Based on Combination Prediction and Dynamic Programming
摘要
In recent years, the problem of plastic waste has attracted widespread attention, and its continued growth poses a serious threat to the environment and human health. To address this plastic crisis, we propose the Production-Waste-Hazard (PWH) model for simulating the life cycle of plastics and its associated impacts. It was found that by 2020, when the share of single-use plastics is 27.8%, the annual waste generated is expected to be 10.97 million tons, with a maximum mitigation of 3.43 million tons. In addition, we extend the PWH model to an integrated PWH (IPWH) model by adding multiple influences such as plastic substitutes, policy interventions, increased environmental awareness among citizens, and removal of accumulated plastic waste in the ocean and on land. We set minimum achievable goals for plastic waste reduction through dynamic programming: goal one is to reduce annual waste from single-use plastics by 2125, and goal two is to reduce plastic hazards by 2131.