Extreme rainfall events act as triggers for slope instability by promoting landslide events, but also for floods that very often occur as a result of unexpected amounts of rain. In many parts of the world, there are studies that show trends towards an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation events as a result of an increase in the energy on Earth due to anthropogenic causes. However, the climatic response is not always uniform throughout the globe, so it is important to assess whether there is an increasing trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation events in central Italy as well. The analysis was performed over 1 and 5 days and the reference period 1991–2020 by collecting data from 131 rainfall stations, evaluating on the one hand the 100-year return value, which is indispensable for mitigating the related hydrogeological risk, and on the other hand a trend analysis was conducted. The GEV methodology was used for return values and the Mann–Kendall test for trend analysis, all carried out in a GIS environment, which allowed spatial interpolations to be generated using geostatistical techniques. The result was unequivocal especially among the significant weather stations that for almost the entire area, with the exception of a small coastal band show an increasing trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation events. A predominantly upward trend is therefore evident in most areas, however interpolations allow for the differentiation of the study area, which very often lacks uniformity due to local meteorological and climatic dynamics. This research could allow a more targeted mitigation of hydrogeological risks, through a better sizing of engineering works, as well as improving knowledge of current and future trends in extreme precipitation events.

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Analysis of the Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events in Central Italy

  • Matteo Gentilucci,
  • Domenico Aringoli,
  • Sara Moscatelli,
  • Andrea Catorci,
  • Younes Hamed,
  • Gilberto Pambianchi

摘要

Extreme rainfall events act as triggers for slope instability by promoting landslide events, but also for floods that very often occur as a result of unexpected amounts of rain. In many parts of the world, there are studies that show trends towards an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation events as a result of an increase in the energy on Earth due to anthropogenic causes. However, the climatic response is not always uniform throughout the globe, so it is important to assess whether there is an increasing trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation events in central Italy as well. The analysis was performed over 1 and 5 days and the reference period 1991–2020 by collecting data from 131 rainfall stations, evaluating on the one hand the 100-year return value, which is indispensable for mitigating the related hydrogeological risk, and on the other hand a trend analysis was conducted. The GEV methodology was used for return values and the Mann–Kendall test for trend analysis, all carried out in a GIS environment, which allowed spatial interpolations to be generated using geostatistical techniques. The result was unequivocal especially among the significant weather stations that for almost the entire area, with the exception of a small coastal band show an increasing trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation events. A predominantly upward trend is therefore evident in most areas, however interpolations allow for the differentiation of the study area, which very often lacks uniformity due to local meteorological and climatic dynamics. This research could allow a more targeted mitigation of hydrogeological risks, through a better sizing of engineering works, as well as improving knowledge of current and future trends in extreme precipitation events.