Marine Forecast for the Southeastern Part of the Black Sea and Prospects for Its Improvement
摘要
In recent decades, the increased anthropogenic impact on the Black Sea has made it relevant to develop a forecasting system that ensures monitoring of the current state of the sea and forecasting its changes in real time. Coastal/shelf waters are the most vulnerable areas within the Black Sea basin, where intensive human economic activities have a strong impact on marine ecosystems. An important step forward in the Black Sea operational oceanography was developing the Black Sea basin-scale nowcasting/forecasting system within the framework of the EC scientific-technical–projects ARENA (2003–2006) and ECOOP (2007–2010). One of the parts of this system is the high-resolution regional forecasting system for the southeastern part of the Black Sea, which covers the Georgian sector of the Black Sea and the adjacent areas. The regional system is based on the high-resolution regional model of the Black Sea dynamics of the Institute of Geophysics (RM-IG) of I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, with which are coupled 2-D and 3-D advection–diffusion models. The regional forecasting system provides a 3-day marine forecast with 1 km spacing in the southeastern part of the Black Sea. Atmospheric forcing is taken into account by prognostic meteorological fields derived from the atmospheric models ALADIN or SKIRON. In this study, some examples of forecasts for hydrophysical fields are presented. The simulated sea surface temperature (SST) is compared with the satellite SST. Further improvement of the regional forecasting system is also discussed related to the development of a very high-resolution forecasting subsystem for the most important part of the Georgian sector of the sea, the Batumi-Poti-Anaklia nearshore zone (with l horizontal step of 200 m), which experiences the greatest anthropogenic load.