Foresight and Alternative Futures Analysis
摘要
This chapter delves into foresight and the analysis of alternative futures, emphasizing the dynamic and multidimensional nature of studying the future. It contrasts forecasting with foresight, highlighting their unique methodologies, objectives, and applications in strategic planning. The chapter explores trends, scenario building, and the role of expert judgment in addressing uncertainties and disruptions. By examining frameworks such as alternative futures analysis and methodologies like trend impact analysis and Delphi, it offers a comprehensive approach to envisioning and preparing for multiple potential outcomes. The chapter concludes with a discussion on the integration of foresight and visioning as complementary tools in strategic decision-making.