Most managerial decisions are made under uncertainty about the decisions of other agents as well as about future events. This chapter outlines and explains several methods for dealing with such decisions under risk. All the methods described assume knowledge or at least some expectations about future events and decisions of other agents with some probability. However, this assumption is controversial, and some proponents argue that in a world of “radical uncertainty,” other ways of making decisions may be more appropriate.

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Methods of Decision-Making Under Risk

  • Robert Rieg,
  • Ute Vanini,
  • Werner Gleißner

摘要

Most managerial decisions are made under uncertainty about the decisions of other agents as well as about future events. This chapter outlines and explains several methods for dealing with such decisions under risk. All the methods described assume knowledge or at least some expectations about future events and decisions of other agents with some probability. However, this assumption is controversial, and some proponents argue that in a world of “radical uncertainty,” other ways of making decisions may be more appropriate.