Climate-Informed Decision Analysis Via Decision Scaling
摘要
Decision-making under climate uncertainty can benefit from the use of a tailored decision analytic framework. The use of climate predictions in decision-making requires consideration of the skill of the information, which varies depending on the prediction period, lead time, variable, temporal resolution, and spatial resolution of the predictand. Decision scaling is a novel climate-informed decision analytic framework designed for addressing climate uncertainty and incorporating climate information when the predictive skill of the climate information is not easily evaluated, unknown, or otherwise unavailable. The use of climate scenario generators solves some of the mismatches between Global Climate Model-derived climate projections and decision analysis—this is the basis for climate-informed decision analysis. Climate information is incorporated as a sensitivity factor in the last stage of analysis for aiding the process of prioritizing risks or choosing among adaptation options through evaluation of probabilities of underperforming strategies and the need for adaptation. The approach has been widely applied in practice for water infrastructure risk assessment and adaptation design.