Adjusting the Predicted Aggregate Risks to Account for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks, Part 2: Safety and Reliability
摘要
The chapter continues on from Chap. 5 by demonstrating correlations of historical data that provide insight into the potential contribution from U/U risk to the total aggregate frequency of life-threatening or mission-threatening accidents; illustrating the synergism between and relevance of data from a variety of sources, including rocket launches, crewed space missions, nuclear reactor accidents, commercial and military system reliability performance, and human reliability performance; and suggesting a table of adjustments to the calculated frequency of life-threatening or mission-threatening accidents to account for U/U risk as a function of composite leading indicators.