This chapter examines the critical relationship between climatic extremes and Lake Victoria’s hydrology by analyzing drought patterns and their impacts on regional food security. Using monthly and seasonal precipitation data (1961–1999), we employ percentile analysis and time series methods to identify drought years (defined as the lowest 25% quartile) and assess their severity through the Drought Severity Index (DSI). Our findings reveal distinct climatic shifts: the 1980s and 1990s emerged as markedly drier decades compared to the 1960s–1970s, with the 1980s experiencing the highest frequency of drought events. Notably, drought intensity has increased in recent decades, particularly during the 1990s. These dry periods consistently disrupt the primary crop-growing seasons (March-May and September-November), with measurable consequences for food security – including increased reliance on food imports in post-drought years. The study provides quantitative evidence linking hydroclimatic variability to agricultural vulnerability in Kenya’s Lake Victoria basin.

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Lake Victoria Basin: Droughts and Food Security

  • Joseph L. Awange

摘要

This chapter examines the critical relationship between climatic extremes and Lake Victoria’s hydrology by analyzing drought patterns and their impacts on regional food security. Using monthly and seasonal precipitation data (1961–1999), we employ percentile analysis and time series methods to identify drought years (defined as the lowest 25% quartile) and assess their severity through the Drought Severity Index (DSI). Our findings reveal distinct climatic shifts: the 1980s and 1990s emerged as markedly drier decades compared to the 1960s–1970s, with the 1980s experiencing the highest frequency of drought events. Notably, drought intensity has increased in recent decades, particularly during the 1990s. These dry periods consistently disrupt the primary crop-growing seasons (March-May and September-November), with measurable consequences for food security – including increased reliance on food imports in post-drought years. The study provides quantitative evidence linking hydroclimatic variability to agricultural vulnerability in Kenya’s Lake Victoria basin.