Soil erosion is a major global problem that leads to increased sedimentation in aquatic systems, nutrient depletion, and deterioration of water quality. The problem is exacerbated by climate variability and human activities such as agricultural intensification and land mismanagement. In the Joshimath region, the severity of soil erosion is intensified by steep slopes, deforestation, and suboptimal land use practices, making the area highly susceptible to erosion. Understanding soil erosion dynamics in such contexts is essential for developing effective watershed management and conservation strategies. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model is integrated with GIS and remote sensing technologies in this study to estimate soil loss in Joshimath, which is located in Uttarakhand, India’s Chamoli district. Data on rainfall, maps of land use and cover, and a digital elevation model (DEM) are among the inputs used by the model. According to the analysis, 10.58% of the land is vulnerable to erosion at a high or very high risk, indicating the need for priority conservation measures, while around 90% of the area is at a lower risk. The 2022 data indicates an annual soil loss of up to 77.4 tons/ha, and a predictive model based on this data projects an increase in annual soil loss to 80.35 tons/ha by 2023. The model also predicts an increase in high and very high erosion risk zones from 10.58 to 15%. The observed percentage change, though modest, signals a concerning trend in soil loss, underscoring the need for targeted conservation strategies. A scatter plot and coefficient of determination (R2) analysis demonstrated a strong correlation (95.7%) between the 2022 observed soil erosion values and the 2023 predicted values, confirming the model’s accuracy. This study enhances understanding of soil erosion dynamics and informs conservation and environmental management efforts in the region.