A brief introduction to the status of the international climate negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its latest scientific publications is given, together with the status of global greenhouse gas emissions. An overview of the historical energy-related CO2 emissions since 1750 and how they relate to economic development, measured in gross domestic product (GDP), is provided, together with the cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions by region. The future energy demand is projected should historical trends in energy efficiency and carbon intensity continue until 2050. The One Earth Climate Model (OECM), its methodology, model architecture, and scientific background are described. An overview of the aligned decarbonization pathways for the industry, service, building, and transport sectors required to achieve the 1.5 °C target is provided. The assumptions made about future market developments that are used for the scenario calculations are documented, and the assumed development of the energy intensities for product manufacture is presented. An overview of the calculated energy consumption and the resulting CO2 intensities is given, with the assumed generation mix. The role of power and gas utilities under the OECM 1.5 °C scenario is discussed, together with the projected trajectories for renewable power- and heat-generating plants and those for hydrogen and synthetic fuel. Future structures of the global primary and secondary energy industries are suggested. The article closes with an overview of a possible allocation of the remaining carbon budget for G20 member countries, as a science-based suggestion for the UNFCCC Global Stocktake process.

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Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement: Setting Meaningful Goals for the Finance Industry

  • Sven Teske

摘要

A brief introduction to the status of the international climate negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its latest scientific publications is given, together with the status of global greenhouse gas emissions. An overview of the historical energy-related CO2 emissions since 1750 and how they relate to economic development, measured in gross domestic product (GDP), is provided, together with the cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions by region. The future energy demand is projected should historical trends in energy efficiency and carbon intensity continue until 2050. The One Earth Climate Model (OECM), its methodology, model architecture, and scientific background are described. An overview of the aligned decarbonization pathways for the industry, service, building, and transport sectors required to achieve the 1.5 °C target is provided. The assumptions made about future market developments that are used for the scenario calculations are documented, and the assumed development of the energy intensities for product manufacture is presented. An overview of the calculated energy consumption and the resulting CO2 intensities is given, with the assumed generation mix. The role of power and gas utilities under the OECM 1.5 °C scenario is discussed, together with the projected trajectories for renewable power- and heat-generating plants and those for hydrogen and synthetic fuel. Future structures of the global primary and secondary energy industries are suggested. The article closes with an overview of a possible allocation of the remaining carbon budget for G20 member countries, as a science-based suggestion for the UNFCCC Global Stocktake process.