This study presents a methodology for predicting spring hydrographs using regional climate model projections, with the goal of assessing the impact of climate change on spring discharge. A statistical-analytical modelling approach was developed and applied to the Jósva Spring Catchment in the Aggtelek Karst, Hungary. Historical data was analyzed to establish a regression function between rainfall and peak discharge. Baseflow recession was examined using a double-component exponential model, with hydrograph decomposition and parameter fitting conducted on the master recession curve. Future spring discharge time series were predicted using rainfall data from two selected regional climate model scenarios. The simulated scenarios indicate a decrease in baseflow discharges during various periods of the 21st century. The results suggest that climate change will likely amplify extreme events in the coming decades, for both investigated CO2 emission scenarios.