Applying (RLS-KF) Method and Some Kernel Methods to Forecasting the Dollar Exchange Rate Based on Exogenous Variables
摘要
Recently, researchers have become increasingly interested in studying the dollar exchange rate because it impacts the economy and administration of countries. Real-time series data usually include linear and nonlinear components due to the presence of phenomena that are subject to mixed models. Based on these considerations, this study presents a hybrid model consisting of a linear model (MISO ARX) and a nonlinear model (GARCH-X). Thus, the hybrid model (MISO ARX-GARCH-X) was used to forecast the dollar exchange rates, as three methods were used to estimate the parameters of the linear model: (RLS-KF), (RELS-DC), and (RELS-TC), and a comparison was made between those methods based on comparison (MAE) and (MAPE). The (QMLE) method was used to estimate the parameters of the non-linear model (GARCH-X); one of the most important results reached is the superiority of the (RELS-DC) method over the rest of the methods in estimating the parameters of the (MISO ARX) model. The hybrid model (MISO ARX(1, 5, 3, 5, 3)-GARCH(2, 1)-X(0, 1)) also showed high accuracy in forecasting. The (MATLAB) program and the (R) program were used to analyze the data.