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Electric vehicles (EV) in Portugal have increased from 2.455 units in 2015 to 80.465 units in 2021. In a context of uncertainty and market transformation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate in its most favorable forecast, adapted to Portugal, a total of 428.044 EVs in 2030. This depicts an EV expansion of 4% in 2020, 17% in 2025, and 34% in 2030. However, such scenarios do not portray current market trends. The continued electrification of consumption result in an annual demand of 450GWh expected to occur between 2022 and 2027, representing an increment of 1%/year. Peak evolution is expected to increase 0.55%/year, from 8.41GW in 2021 to roughly 8.69GW in 2027. Using the registered consumption of primary substations (E-REDES—Distribuição de eletricidade. Open Data da E-REDES, 2022) as a capacity availability indicator show a 57% global peak demand index or roughly 19MVA in Portugal. A 40% available capacity was observed within considered primary substations. Despite the capacity of the network to accommodate the absolute energy demand for the transport sector, a significantly higher slope in EV evolution depicts a future challenge for the grid in a near future.

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The Electric Vehicle Challenge for the Distribution Electricity Grid

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • José Gonçalves,
  • Pedro Miguel

摘要

Electric vehicles (EV) in Portugal have increased from 2.455 units in 2015 to 80.465 units in 2021. In a context of uncertainty and market transformation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate in its most favorable forecast, adapted to Portugal, a total of 428.044 EVs in 2030. This depicts an EV expansion of 4% in 2020, 17% in 2025, and 34% in 2030. However, such scenarios do not portray current market trends. The continued electrification of consumption result in an annual demand of 450GWh expected to occur between 2022 and 2027, representing an increment of 1%/year. Peak evolution is expected to increase 0.55%/year, from 8.41GW in 2021 to roughly 8.69GW in 2027. Using the registered consumption of primary substations (E-REDES—Distribuição de eletricidade. Open Data da E-REDES, 2022) as a capacity availability indicator show a 57% global peak demand index or roughly 19MVA in Portugal. A 40% available capacity was observed within considered primary substations. Despite the capacity of the network to accommodate the absolute energy demand for the transport sector, a significantly higher slope in EV evolution depicts a future challenge for the grid in a near future.