The 2023 Elections in Argentina, Mexico and Paraguay in Comparative Perspective
摘要
The 2023 elections in Argentina, Mexico, and Paraguay present a compelling comparative study of political dynamics in Latin Amer-ica. Historically, the political systems of these countries have been shaped by hegemonic parties that both reflected and fueled social and political conflicts. In Argentina, the dominance of UCR and Pe-ronism, in Mexico, the "Perfect Dictatorship" of PRI, and in Para-guay, the Partido Colorado, defined their twentieth-century political landscapes. In the twenty-first century, these nations have experi-enced deep political and identity divisions, characterized more by a government-opposition cleavage than by ideological disputes. This is evident in the dichotomies between Peronist and anti-Peronist forces in Argentina, Morena and its opponents in Mexico, and the fragmented opposition versus Partido Colorado in Paraguay. The 2023 elections underscore these divisions, presenting a crucial juncture for the potential (dis)continuity of pivotal parties and the deepening of the opposition-government divide. New opposition movements, such as La Libertad Avanza in Argentina, the coalition of traditional parties in Mexico, and the fragmented opposition in Paraguay, emerge amidst centrifugal forces challenging ruling par-ties. This essay examines the electoral scenarios, highlighting how the political systems have become complex yet organized around a bimodal logic driven by presidential races, leading to significant catch-all coalitions and a campaign discourse centered on continui-ty versus change.