The variable meteorological conditions and urbanization have led to the intensification of drought, making it a significant catastrophe globally. It is projected that occurrences of megadroughts can last for more than 10 years, with an increase from 12% to about 60%, making the hazard more intense and having a profound impact worldwide. Findings by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a key representative of meteorological drought, have highlighted a rise in rainfall deficit in northeastern and peninsular India in 2023 exhibiting a substantial declining trend over the last 60–70 years in the summer monsoonal rainfall. These instances further intensified both the frequency and spatial-temporal variation of droughts in India between 1951 and 2016, which listed India as a severely impacted drought country. Efforts should be made to research techniques involving effective frequency, duration, and severity analysis at spatiotemporal scales to develop a robust understanding of the regional extent of droughts. Further, a gap exists in forecasting measures and drought onset and termination techniques. Techniques like pattern recognition, ARMA models, and physical methods such as Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), PHDI, and SPI can substantially assist in developing effective and reliable forecasting methods. In addition, the impacts of hydrological extremes should be mitigated by following a risk-based instead of a crisis-based approach. This, in turn, significantly impacts the sustainable management of water resources and the mitigation of drought impacts by addressing adaptation measures and strengthening capacity building. Thus, this chapter first reviews the various drought-related studies and demonstrates a case study on one of the worst drought-affected Indian basins, Godavari, where natural and anthropogenic drivers dominate.

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Review on Droughts: A Complex Interplay Between Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers

  • Meghomala Ghosal,
  • Somil Swarnkar

摘要

The variable meteorological conditions and urbanization have led to the intensification of drought, making it a significant catastrophe globally. It is projected that occurrences of megadroughts can last for more than 10 years, with an increase from 12% to about 60%, making the hazard more intense and having a profound impact worldwide. Findings by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a key representative of meteorological drought, have highlighted a rise in rainfall deficit in northeastern and peninsular India in 2023 exhibiting a substantial declining trend over the last 60–70 years in the summer monsoonal rainfall. These instances further intensified both the frequency and spatial-temporal variation of droughts in India between 1951 and 2016, which listed India as a severely impacted drought country. Efforts should be made to research techniques involving effective frequency, duration, and severity analysis at spatiotemporal scales to develop a robust understanding of the regional extent of droughts. Further, a gap exists in forecasting measures and drought onset and termination techniques. Techniques like pattern recognition, ARMA models, and physical methods such as Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), PHDI, and SPI can substantially assist in developing effective and reliable forecasting methods. In addition, the impacts of hydrological extremes should be mitigated by following a risk-based instead of a crisis-based approach. This, in turn, significantly impacts the sustainable management of water resources and the mitigation of drought impacts by addressing adaptation measures and strengthening capacity building. Thus, this chapter first reviews the various drought-related studies and demonstrates a case study on one of the worst drought-affected Indian basins, Godavari, where natural and anthropogenic drivers dominate.