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This paper focuses on the transition period from Zero Clearing to Opening management in COVID-19 prevention and control in China. By demographic analysis and the construction of an SIR model, the infections and abnormal deaths in China from November 2022 to February 2023 are estimated. The statistical data used in this study is mainly sourced from authoritative Chinese institutions, including NBS, NHC, and CDC. The results show that during the period from November 2022 to February 2023: (1) The cumulative COVID-19 deaths in China is about 1.99 million, including individuals who die of COVID-19 and those who die with COVID-19. (2) COVID-19 infection rate is estimated to peak at 65.3% on January 2, 2023.

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From Zero Clearing to Opening Management: The Estimation of the Infection Cases and Mortality Cases in Post-Covid-19 Pandemic Governance (Nov. 2022–Feb. 2023)

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Yixiao Wei,
  • Yuxia Wu,
  • Hong Mi

摘要

This paper focuses on the transition period from Zero Clearing to Opening management in COVID-19 prevention and control in China. By demographic analysis and the construction of an SIR model, the infections and abnormal deaths in China from November 2022 to February 2023 are estimated. The statistical data used in this study is mainly sourced from authoritative Chinese institutions, including NBS, NHC, and CDC. The results show that during the period from November 2022 to February 2023: (1) The cumulative COVID-19 deaths in China is about 1.99 million, including individuals who die of COVID-19 and those who die with COVID-19. (2) COVID-19 infection rate is estimated to peak at 65.3% on January 2, 2023.