Recently, inspired by predictive process monitoring, the modeling and prediction of the entire process information system has been proposed as process model forecasting. By forecasting individual elements of a directly-follows graph, the future state of the system can be predicted. However, the current state-of-the-art principally employs univariate forecasting of direct-follows relationships (DFs). This univariate approach overlooks the process structure and possible relations between different elements within the process. This paper introduces a comprehensive deployment of multivariate time series models, more specifically a range of different machine- and deep learning approaches, to forecast DFs. These are benchmarked on different event logs collected from real-life event processes. Our extensive experiments reveal that the performance of these forecasting models varies significantly across different processes, highlighting the importance of model selection.

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Multivariate Approaches for Process Model Forecasting

  • Yongbo Yu,
  • Jari Peeperkorn,
  • Johannes De Smedt,
  • Jochen De Weerdt

摘要

Recently, inspired by predictive process monitoring, the modeling and prediction of the entire process information system has been proposed as process model forecasting. By forecasting individual elements of a directly-follows graph, the future state of the system can be predicted. However, the current state-of-the-art principally employs univariate forecasting of direct-follows relationships (DFs). This univariate approach overlooks the process structure and possible relations between different elements within the process. This paper introduces a comprehensive deployment of multivariate time series models, more specifically a range of different machine- and deep learning approaches, to forecast DFs. These are benchmarked on different event logs collected from real-life event processes. Our extensive experiments reveal that the performance of these forecasting models varies significantly across different processes, highlighting the importance of model selection.