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Enhancing the portfolio of renewable energy sources and phasing out coal are essential measures for reducing emissions in the power sector. Considering Indonesia's role as a notable fossil fuels producer, this study investigates the role of natural gas as a bridge fuel in Indonesia's power sector, employing a Versatile Data Analyst – The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (VEDA-TIMES) for energy system optimization. Various scenarios are assessed, including a business-as-usual scenario (BAU) both with and without carbon budget constraints, a scenario focusing on increasing renewable energy penetration (RPS), and a coal phase-out scenario (CPO). In the BAU scenario, unabated coal power plants will comprise 69% of the system, decreasing by only 24% in the RE scenario by 2060. The importance of natural gas becomes more pronounced in the CPO and carbon budget constraint scenarios. As coal is phased out, gas reaches its highest share in 2045, accounting for 34.1% of the power generation mix. However, its contribution declines post 2050 as solar utility-scale and battery storage expand. This trend underscores a broader shift toward decarbonization, positioning natural gas as a crucial bridge fuel in meeting energy needs while renewable technologies mature.

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Modeling the Role of Natural Gas in Power System Transition Towards Net Zero Emissions 2060 in Indonesia Using TIMES Model

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Suhesti Herawati,
  • Widodo Wahyu Purwanto

摘要

Enhancing the portfolio of renewable energy sources and phasing out coal are essential measures for reducing emissions in the power sector. Considering Indonesia's role as a notable fossil fuels producer, this study investigates the role of natural gas as a bridge fuel in Indonesia's power sector, employing a Versatile Data Analyst – The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (VEDA-TIMES) for energy system optimization. Various scenarios are assessed, including a business-as-usual scenario (BAU) both with and without carbon budget constraints, a scenario focusing on increasing renewable energy penetration (RPS), and a coal phase-out scenario (CPO). In the BAU scenario, unabated coal power plants will comprise 69% of the system, decreasing by only 24% in the RE scenario by 2060. The importance of natural gas becomes more pronounced in the CPO and carbon budget constraint scenarios. As coal is phased out, gas reaches its highest share in 2045, accounting for 34.1% of the power generation mix. However, its contribution declines post 2050 as solar utility-scale and battery storage expand. This trend underscores a broader shift toward decarbonization, positioning natural gas as a crucial bridge fuel in meeting energy needs while renewable technologies mature.