Indonesia is a country that is prone to various natural disasters, hence both the central and local government often face funding problems for disaster management. The limited funds sourced from the State and Regional Budget Revenues and Expenditures require the establishment of a disaster insurance scheme as alternative financing. The state and the community must actively participate in disaster management to make its insurance work. The community as an object can support this process by paying insurance premiums and taking into account the households’ socioeconomic conditions. However, up to now, there has been no official mechanism as the basis for implementing disaster insurance in Indonesia due to limited supporting data. To fill this gap, this study aims to examine determinants of the insurance participation status of households in Indonesia using probit regression with the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) approach and the 2019 National Socioeconomic Survey’s data. The result found that variables of age, gender, education level, head of the household’s work type, family size, the classification of residence, and expenditures significantly affect household participation in the insurance program. This study provided essential inputs for implementing Indonesia’s disaster insurance program scheme. Both central and local governments can support and give subsidies to households with lower incomes, living in rural areas, having less than three members, and those with household heads who have lower education, female, and work in the informal sector.

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Determinants of Participation in a Disaster Insurance Programme in Indonesia: A Probit Regression with SMOTE Approach

  • Siskarossa Ika Oktora,
  • Ika Yuni Wulansari,
  • Tiodora Hadumaon Siagian

摘要

Indonesia is a country that is prone to various natural disasters, hence both the central and local government often face funding problems for disaster management. The limited funds sourced from the State and Regional Budget Revenues and Expenditures require the establishment of a disaster insurance scheme as alternative financing. The state and the community must actively participate in disaster management to make its insurance work. The community as an object can support this process by paying insurance premiums and taking into account the households’ socioeconomic conditions. However, up to now, there has been no official mechanism as the basis for implementing disaster insurance in Indonesia due to limited supporting data. To fill this gap, this study aims to examine determinants of the insurance participation status of households in Indonesia using probit regression with the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) approach and the 2019 National Socioeconomic Survey’s data. The result found that variables of age, gender, education level, head of the household’s work type, family size, the classification of residence, and expenditures significantly affect household participation in the insurance program. This study provided essential inputs for implementing Indonesia’s disaster insurance program scheme. Both central and local governments can support and give subsidies to households with lower incomes, living in rural areas, having less than three members, and those with household heads who have lower education, female, and work in the informal sector.