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Estimation of earthquake ground motion parameters is a crucial task for seismic load consideration and earthquake risk reduction in urbanized areas. Three new settlements namely, the New Administrative Capital, the First Settlement, and the Fifth Settlement in Egypt were chosen for this research. The investigated areas lie in the eastern Cairo region which is currently witnessing large investments and considerable urban expansion. Nevertheless, this region is impacted by seismic risk from the surrounding seismic source zones. The 31 December 2018 (Mw 4.2) earthquake, which occured near the studied region was the considered event for the current research, since it was felt throughout the Greater Cairo region without reported damage. During the time of this event, there were no accelerographs to record it inside the studied region, however, the earthquake was recorded by three accelerographs outside the region. The present study focuses on a direct modeling of strong ground motions in the investigated areas using the stochastic approach. A source model considering the path and the site effects was used for simulating strong ground motion in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), Pseudo Spectral Acceleration (PSA), and seismic intensity (MMI). The site amplification was estimated based on the average shear wave velocity (Vs30) data. A seismic array was conducted inside each study area to record microtremor data, which was analyzed by the Centerless Circular Array (CCA) technique to infer the Vs profile. The surface soil was classified based on the NEHRP classification standard using Vs30 data. A model of strong ground motion simulation for the 31 December 2018 earthquake was built using parameters about the earthquake’s source, path, and site amplification. The built model was verified by comparing its output with observational data. The results reveal two site classes within the study region, Class C and Class D. The First Settlement is classified into Class C, while the Fifth Settlement and the Administrative Capital are classified into Class D. The site amplification was estimated to be 2.2. The maximum PGA, PGV, and PSA at the ground surface was estimated in the New Administrative Capital (epicentral distance ~17 km) as 19.5 cm/s2, 0.4 cm/s, and 70.0 cm/s2 respectively. The seismic intensity ranges (MMI = III-IV). The present findings represent valuable information for minimizing the risk from future earthquakes in the studied region.

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Stochastic Simulation of Earthquake Ground Motions for Selected Event and Locations in the East Mediterranean and Red Sea Regions

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Mostafa Toni,
  • Medhat El Rayess,
  • Emad K. Mohamed,
  • Khaled Omar

摘要

Estimation of earthquake ground motion parameters is a crucial task for seismic load consideration and earthquake risk reduction in urbanized areas. Three new settlements namely, the New Administrative Capital, the First Settlement, and the Fifth Settlement in Egypt were chosen for this research. The investigated areas lie in the eastern Cairo region which is currently witnessing large investments and considerable urban expansion. Nevertheless, this region is impacted by seismic risk from the surrounding seismic source zones. The 31 December 2018 (Mw 4.2) earthquake, which occured near the studied region was the considered event for the current research, since it was felt throughout the Greater Cairo region without reported damage. During the time of this event, there were no accelerographs to record it inside the studied region, however, the earthquake was recorded by three accelerographs outside the region. The present study focuses on a direct modeling of strong ground motions in the investigated areas using the stochastic approach. A source model considering the path and the site effects was used for simulating strong ground motion in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), Pseudo Spectral Acceleration (PSA), and seismic intensity (MMI). The site amplification was estimated based on the average shear wave velocity (Vs30) data. A seismic array was conducted inside each study area to record microtremor data, which was analyzed by the Centerless Circular Array (CCA) technique to infer the Vs profile. The surface soil was classified based on the NEHRP classification standard using Vs30 data. A model of strong ground motion simulation for the 31 December 2018 earthquake was built using parameters about the earthquake’s source, path, and site amplification. The built model was verified by comparing its output with observational data. The results reveal two site classes within the study region, Class C and Class D. The First Settlement is classified into Class C, while the Fifth Settlement and the Administrative Capital are classified into Class D. The site amplification was estimated to be 2.2. The maximum PGA, PGV, and PSA at the ground surface was estimated in the New Administrative Capital (epicentral distance ~17 km) as 19.5 cm/s2, 0.4 cm/s, and 70.0 cm/s2 respectively. The seismic intensity ranges (MMI = III-IV). The present findings represent valuable information for minimizing the risk from future earthquakes in the studied region.