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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is influenced by several factors, including investment levels, consumption, foreign trade, and economic policy decisions. Additionally, energy consumption plays a crucial role in economic activity, both in production processes and transportation of commercialized products. This paper employs regression analysis to examine the relationship between electrical energy and diesel oil consumption and GDP growth. The objective of this study is to determine if it is possible to predict GDP growth based on monthly input consumption. The data used in this study was collected from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) and the Central Bank of Brazil. To process the modeling and provide input for the forecast analysis, we used Minitab® 19.0 software. The data indicates a strong correlation between diesel oil and electrical energy consumption with GDP growth, allowing for medium-term GDP forecasts based on changes in the use of these inputs.

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Forecast of Brazilian GDP Growth Through Consumption of Diesel Oil and Electrical Energy

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Leonardo Lourenço de Souza,
  • Vinicius Antonio Montgomery de Miranda,
  • Carlos Eduardo Sanches da Silva,
  • Juliana Helena Daroz Gaudencio,
  • Pedro Paulo Balestrassi

摘要

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is influenced by several factors, including investment levels, consumption, foreign trade, and economic policy decisions. Additionally, energy consumption plays a crucial role in economic activity, both in production processes and transportation of commercialized products. This paper employs regression analysis to examine the relationship between electrical energy and diesel oil consumption and GDP growth. The objective of this study is to determine if it is possible to predict GDP growth based on monthly input consumption. The data used in this study was collected from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) and the Central Bank of Brazil. To process the modeling and provide input for the forecast analysis, we used Minitab® 19.0 software. The data indicates a strong correlation between diesel oil and electrical energy consumption with GDP growth, allowing for medium-term GDP forecasts based on changes in the use of these inputs.