Fire safety remains a persistent challenge in Russia. This study analyzes fire statistics from 2019 to 2022, employing a novel methodology that merges time series analysis and the Pareto principle. Our goal is to not only uncover trends in fire occurrences and direct material damage (DMD), but also pinpoint the leading culprits responsible for these fires. The analysis reveals a promising trend: a steady decline in fire occurrences (2019–2022), suggesting the effectiveness of existing fire prevention measures. However, a puzzle emerges – the DMD trend remains flat. This implies factors beyond fire frequency influence total damage. Notably, the number of fires decreased almost five times faster than DMD during the study period. By applying the Pareto principle, we expose the dominant fire causes. In 2019, careless handling of fire (X6) was responsible for a staggering 80% of fires. In 2022, two causes emerged: careless handling of fire (X6) remains a primary culprit, joined by violations of electrical equipment installation/operation rules (X3), jointly contributing to 80% of fires. The consistency with data from 2013–2016 highlights the critical need for targeted interventions. This research lays the groundwork for future studies aimed at unveiling the enigma of the flat DMD trend. We propose investigating the composition of fire damage and the influence of external factors like property values and fire response effectiveness. This research not only identifies trends in fire occurrences and DMD, but also sheds light on potential causes and areas for improvement in fire prevention and management strategies.