Are Narratives Contagious? Modeling Narrative Diffusion Using Epidemiological Theories
摘要
We live in a hyper-connected world where narratives travel at lightning speed, transforming individuals into groups and groups into mobs. Recent events illustrate how narratives on social media can be weaponized and spread rapidly to sow discord. These insidious threats, aimed at influencing beliefs and behaviors, must be viewed as modern weapons of cognitive warfare. While cyber capabilities are crucial for multi-domain operations (i.e., land, sea, air), today’s challenges extend beyond traditional cybersecurity to include information and influence operations targeting individuals at the micro level and groups or societies at the macro level. This study hypothesizes that narratives spread like diseases and utilizes epidemiological theories to evaluate this hypothesis. Key research questions include: Do narratives spread like contagions? Can we identify and measure which narratives are more infectious? Comparing the SIR and SEIZ models, which compartmentalize the target audience into susceptible (S), infected (I), recovered (R), and/or skeptical (Z), this study aims to model narrative diffusion and objectively measure infection rates across various narratives. Data from YouTube, a prominent social media platform in the South China Sea region, is analyzed to examine competing narratives and validate the research. Ultimately, this research aims to inform science-driven decision-making by prioritizing narratives with intervention strategies tailored to individuals in specific compartments.