Decision-makers in manufacturing and retail industries face many uncertainties in the period of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It includes uncertainties in the parameters for their raw material or part procurement process and production planning. This paper presents a novel hybrid probabilistic–fuzzy optimization model that can be used to solve integrated raw material procurement and production planning under uncertainties of parameters, which is suitable for situations after a pandemic. Extraordinary situations such as uncertainties, excess demands, fuzzy parameters, and probabilistic parameters are covered in the proposed model. The aim of the model is to maximize the expected profit of the whole activity. The uncertain programming algorithm based on the interior point method was utilized to calculate the optimal decision of the problem. Using randomly generated data, simulations were carried out to evaluate and analyze the proposed model. Results showed that the proposed decision-making model successfully provides the optimal decision, that is, the optimal raw material procurement and production planning scheme. This leads to the conclusion that the model can be utilized by decision-makers in industries.

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A Hybrid Probabilistic–Fuzzy Programming for Integrated Production Planning and Raw Material Procurement in Post-Pandemic Time

  • S. Sutrisno,
  • Purnawan Adi Wicaksono,
  • S. Solikhin,
  • Abdul Aziz

摘要

Decision-makers in manufacturing and retail industries face many uncertainties in the period of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It includes uncertainties in the parameters for their raw material or part procurement process and production planning. This paper presents a novel hybrid probabilistic–fuzzy optimization model that can be used to solve integrated raw material procurement and production planning under uncertainties of parameters, which is suitable for situations after a pandemic. Extraordinary situations such as uncertainties, excess demands, fuzzy parameters, and probabilistic parameters are covered in the proposed model. The aim of the model is to maximize the expected profit of the whole activity. The uncertain programming algorithm based on the interior point method was utilized to calculate the optimal decision of the problem. Using randomly generated data, simulations were carried out to evaluate and analyze the proposed model. Results showed that the proposed decision-making model successfully provides the optimal decision, that is, the optimal raw material procurement and production planning scheme. This leads to the conclusion that the model can be utilized by decision-makers in industries.