The Carry-over Effect in a Polycrisis: How Attitudes to Covid-19 Mutated into Vulnerability to Russian Disinformation During the War in Ukraine
摘要
The war in Ukraine followed closely Covid-19 and occurred in an information ecosystem marked by a heightened level of uncertainty and distrust in elites. These circumstances created fertile ground for the spread of unverified information. In the case of both the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine, Russian state-affiliated actors are documented to be the creators and disseminators of disinformation narratives. Moreover, there is evidence that individuals, organizations and media which questioned the official narratives about C-19 moved on to question the western and NATO policy towards the war in Ukraine. In our research we have found that this mechanism operated on the level of public opinion: scepticism towards the official state policy to C-19 translated into a negative attitude to policy towards the war, and hence to a pro-Russian attitude. In both the C-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine, political elites, both the government and most opposition parties, developed a policy consensus reflected in the main media outlets. Some people questioned this consensus and looked for an alternative narrative. The findings are based on public opinion surveys conducted in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. We found inter-country commonalities and differences: the C-19 attitudes are very similar in all three countries. However, the attitude to the war in Ukraine differs. In Poland, the pro-Russian narratives are met with the weakest response, while Slovaks are the most susceptible to this type of influence.