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In the present work we study the spatial distributions and the time evolution of top 5 ETCCDI precipitation-based climate indices over Southeast Europe in projected future climate up to the end of the 21 century. The indices are based on selected CMIP5 global simulations and are computed for all 4 RCP emission scenarios. The study confirms the complexity of the expected precipitation-related changes. It is revealed general drying tendency toward the end of the 21st century, which is quantified with increase of CDD and decrease of PRCPTOT. This tendency, however, is accompanied by steady increases in R95p. The last suggest that dry spells in the region, which are prerequisite for droughts, will become longer, but that precipitation may be more extreme when it occurs.

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ETCCDI Precipitation-Based Climate Indices in the CMIP5 Future Climate Projections over Southeast Europe

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Hristo Chervenkov,
  • Kiril Slavov

摘要

In the present work we study the spatial distributions and the time evolution of top 5 ETCCDI precipitation-based climate indices over Southeast Europe in projected future climate up to the end of the 21 century. The indices are based on selected CMIP5 global simulations and are computed for all 4 RCP emission scenarios. The study confirms the complexity of the expected precipitation-related changes. It is revealed general drying tendency toward the end of the 21st century, which is quantified with increase of CDD and decrease of PRCPTOT. This tendency, however, is accompanied by steady increases in R95p. The last suggest that dry spells in the region, which are prerequisite for droughts, will become longer, but that precipitation may be more extreme when it occurs.