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Effective water resource management under climate change stress necessitates precise impact assessments. Addressing the coarse spatial resolution limitations of General Circulation Models (GCMs), this study presents an advanced regional climate modelling approach, enhancing GCM outputs to a finer resolution of 0.0125° × 0.0125°. This enhancement is crucial for understanding the intricate interplay between topography and hydrological processes, particularly in mountainous regions like Himachal Pradesh, India. Utilizing the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, known for its variable infiltration rates affecting runoff and evapotranspiration, the study emphasizes meticulous model calibration against high-resolution observational data. This calibration, including iterative parameter adjustments, significantly improves model performance, as demonstrated by our case study’s results. The model's robustness, validated through rigorous empirical testing, underscores its potential as a pivotal tool for policy development, aimed at creating resilient water management systems in anticipation of hydrological changes induced by climate change. Furthermore, this research introduces a novel methodological framework for hydrological modelling, ensuring that regional climate change assessments are both precise and actionable for policymakers. Our findings highlight stark differences in hydrological impacts under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in water resource management to accommodate anticipated climatic shifts.

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Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydroclimatic Regimes in Beas River Basin

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Siddik Barbhuiya,
  • Salil Sharma,
  • Ashish Pathania,
  • Vivek Gupta

摘要

Effective water resource management under climate change stress necessitates precise impact assessments. Addressing the coarse spatial resolution limitations of General Circulation Models (GCMs), this study presents an advanced regional climate modelling approach, enhancing GCM outputs to a finer resolution of 0.0125° × 0.0125°. This enhancement is crucial for understanding the intricate interplay between topography and hydrological processes, particularly in mountainous regions like Himachal Pradesh, India. Utilizing the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, known for its variable infiltration rates affecting runoff and evapotranspiration, the study emphasizes meticulous model calibration against high-resolution observational data. This calibration, including iterative parameter adjustments, significantly improves model performance, as demonstrated by our case study’s results. The model's robustness, validated through rigorous empirical testing, underscores its potential as a pivotal tool for policy development, aimed at creating resilient water management systems in anticipation of hydrological changes induced by climate change. Furthermore, this research introduces a novel methodological framework for hydrological modelling, ensuring that regional climate change assessments are both precise and actionable for policymakers. Our findings highlight stark differences in hydrological impacts under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in water resource management to accommodate anticipated climatic shifts.