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The southwestern coast of Bangladesh is a region that is particularly susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs), which pose a significant threat to both human life and property. With increasing evidence of the effects of climate change, there is an urgent need to assess the risk of these cyclones, including their frequency and intensity. Considering this issue, geospatial analysis was employed to evaluate the hazard, vulnerability, and mitigation capacity associated with eighteen parameters. A risk zonation map was produced using satellite and official data by geostatistical techniques in ArcMap 10.8. A weighted analysis was performed to identify the key factors contributing to the risk of TCs. The resulting hazard and vulnerability components were then combined and subtracted by the mitigation capacity to produce a risk map. The observed values were subjected to significance testing using Generalized Linear Regression (GLR), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Forest-based Classification and Regression (FCR) in ArcPro 3.1. Finally, a composite risk map was generated based on the predicted and observed data. The study revealed that the southeastern, middle-part, southwestern, and northeastern parts of the study area were highly vulnerable to TCs due to their proximity to the coastline, low elevation, high wind speed, and storm surge. These areas also had poor infrastructure, which further enhanced the risk level. The very high-risk zone and high-risk zone covered 11.48% and 47.60% of the study area, respectively. The low- and very low-risk zones covered 8.55% and 12.60% of the area, respectively. The northwestern part of the study area was found to be relatively safe due to its distance from the coastline, low wind speed, low surge height, and well infrastructure. In conclusion, this methodology provides a valuable tool for local authorities to identify vulnerable areas to TCs and to take appropriate measures to improve the mitigation capacity of the southwestern coast of Bangladesh against these catastrophic risks.

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Assessing Risk of Landfall Tropical Cyclone on the Southwestern Coast of Bangladesh—A Geospatial Analysis

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Md. Najmul Kabir,
  • Md. Bahuddin Sikder,
  • Md. Anowarul Islam,
  • Nidhy Mostan

摘要

The southwestern coast of Bangladesh is a region that is particularly susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs), which pose a significant threat to both human life and property. With increasing evidence of the effects of climate change, there is an urgent need to assess the risk of these cyclones, including their frequency and intensity. Considering this issue, geospatial analysis was employed to evaluate the hazard, vulnerability, and mitigation capacity associated with eighteen parameters. A risk zonation map was produced using satellite and official data by geostatistical techniques in ArcMap 10.8. A weighted analysis was performed to identify the key factors contributing to the risk of TCs. The resulting hazard and vulnerability components were then combined and subtracted by the mitigation capacity to produce a risk map. The observed values were subjected to significance testing using Generalized Linear Regression (GLR), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Forest-based Classification and Regression (FCR) in ArcPro 3.1. Finally, a composite risk map was generated based on the predicted and observed data. The study revealed that the southeastern, middle-part, southwestern, and northeastern parts of the study area were highly vulnerable to TCs due to their proximity to the coastline, low elevation, high wind speed, and storm surge. These areas also had poor infrastructure, which further enhanced the risk level. The very high-risk zone and high-risk zone covered 11.48% and 47.60% of the study area, respectively. The low- and very low-risk zones covered 8.55% and 12.60% of the area, respectively. The northwestern part of the study area was found to be relatively safe due to its distance from the coastline, low wind speed, low surge height, and well infrastructure. In conclusion, this methodology provides a valuable tool for local authorities to identify vulnerable areas to TCs and to take appropriate measures to improve the mitigation capacity of the southwestern coast of Bangladesh against these catastrophic risks.