Spot-price information from an energy market is a readily available signal in many locations. This information acts as a reasonable proxy for real-time demand data, data that is critical to any flexible demand strategy. This data is inherently random in nature, and in this note we develop a framework for describing daily fluctuations in a simple manner where prices at a particular settlement time can be estimated by draws from a posterior predictive distribution.

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Characterizing Energy Spot-Price Data as a Proxy for Demand

  • Matt Shepit

摘要

Spot-price information from an energy market is a readily available signal in many locations. This information acts as a reasonable proxy for real-time demand data, data that is critical to any flexible demand strategy. This data is inherently random in nature, and in this note we develop a framework for describing daily fluctuations in a simple manner where prices at a particular settlement time can be estimated by draws from a posterior predictive distribution.