The vulnerability is a valuable concept for understanding the territorial systems and stakeholders in order to prepare and react in front of sudden and unpredictable shocks or to slow changes. This paper presents a vulnerability analysis of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries’ exposure to geopolitical risks, underscored by the construction of a composite index. Our analysis systematically assesses four critical dimensions of vulnerability—political, economic, health, and military—to measure the extent to which Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine are susceptible to external and internal geopolitical threats. These dimensions are integrated into a composite index that quantifies the overall vulnerability of each country, providing a comparative insight into their respective liabilities. The importance of studying geopolitical vulnerability in the EaP countries stems from their unique geopolitical positioning at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, coupled with their diverse socio-political histories and economic profiles. Each country faces distinct challenges, ranging from unresolved territorial conflicts and political instability to economic dependencies and health care inadequacies. These challenges are exacerbated by the external pressures from neighboring powers and global geopolitical dynamics, making a multidimensional vulnerability assessment critical. By analyzing each dimension of vulnerability, this study aims to highlight specific areas where EaP countries may require targeted strategies to mitigate their risks. The findings are intended to assist policymakers, scholars, and international organizations in understanding the intricacies of geopolitical vulnerability in the region, fostering informed decision-making to enhance stability and security. Ultimately, the paper contributes to the broader discourse on regional security, resilience, and the strategic significance of the EaP initiative in maintaining a balance amid regional and global geopolitical currents.

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A Vulnerability Analysis of the Eastern Partnership’s Countries’ Exposure to Geopolitical Risks

  • Carmen Pintilescu,
  • Elena-Daniela Viorica

摘要

The vulnerability is a valuable concept for understanding the territorial systems and stakeholders in order to prepare and react in front of sudden and unpredictable shocks or to slow changes. This paper presents a vulnerability analysis of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries’ exposure to geopolitical risks, underscored by the construction of a composite index. Our analysis systematically assesses four critical dimensions of vulnerability—political, economic, health, and military—to measure the extent to which Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine are susceptible to external and internal geopolitical threats. These dimensions are integrated into a composite index that quantifies the overall vulnerability of each country, providing a comparative insight into their respective liabilities. The importance of studying geopolitical vulnerability in the EaP countries stems from their unique geopolitical positioning at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, coupled with their diverse socio-political histories and economic profiles. Each country faces distinct challenges, ranging from unresolved territorial conflicts and political instability to economic dependencies and health care inadequacies. These challenges are exacerbated by the external pressures from neighboring powers and global geopolitical dynamics, making a multidimensional vulnerability assessment critical. By analyzing each dimension of vulnerability, this study aims to highlight specific areas where EaP countries may require targeted strategies to mitigate their risks. The findings are intended to assist policymakers, scholars, and international organizations in understanding the intricacies of geopolitical vulnerability in the region, fostering informed decision-making to enhance stability and security. Ultimately, the paper contributes to the broader discourse on regional security, resilience, and the strategic significance of the EaP initiative in maintaining a balance amid regional and global geopolitical currents.