Scenario-based foresight enables companies to remain competitive in rapidly changing and complex environments by systematically dealing with the future. Yet, its use in practice has decreased significantly. One major challenge is the design of a scenario process that is customized to the unique requirements of a new scenario project. Specifically, practitioners are faced with selecting suitable methodical approaches and supporting digital tools out of a high number of possibilities. A comprehensive, structured overview of methods and tools is missing. In this paper, we develop a toolbox for scenario-based foresight using design science research. The toolbox consists of 79 method building blocks and 9 tool building blocks. The building blocks enable practitioners to design their customized scenario process and to select the appropriate digital tools with low effort during the preparation phase of a scenario project. The applicability of the toolbox is shown using a previously conducted scenario project.

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Developing a Toolbox for Scenario-Based Foresight

  • Patrick Ködding,
  • Christian Koldewey,
  • Roman Dumitrescu

摘要

Scenario-based foresight enables companies to remain competitive in rapidly changing and complex environments by systematically dealing with the future. Yet, its use in practice has decreased significantly. One major challenge is the design of a scenario process that is customized to the unique requirements of a new scenario project. Specifically, practitioners are faced with selecting suitable methodical approaches and supporting digital tools out of a high number of possibilities. A comprehensive, structured overview of methods and tools is missing. In this paper, we develop a toolbox for scenario-based foresight using design science research. The toolbox consists of 79 method building blocks and 9 tool building blocks. The building blocks enable practitioners to design their customized scenario process and to select the appropriate digital tools with low effort during the preparation phase of a scenario project. The applicability of the toolbox is shown using a previously conducted scenario project.