Challenges for Scenario-Based Foresight and Potential for Digital Technologies: Insights from Practice
摘要
Scenario-based foresight helps companies to systematically deal with future environmental developments and successful strategic business planning. However, the established management tool is used less frequently in today's fast-paced and complex world. Emerging digital technologies, such as generative artificial intelligence, can increase the efficiency of scenario-based foresight and the quality of the results. In the literature, there are already analyses of use cases for digital technologies. However, comprehensive current insights from practice are lacking in this regard and regarding the current status quo of scenario-based foresight in companies. For this purpose, we conducted an explorative interview study with eight scenario experts of industrial companies and consultancies. As a result, we obtained seven key messages that help address the research gap we raised. We describe the status quo of scenario-based foresight in companies and the challenges they face. Additionally, we analyze the current use of digital technologies in scenario projects and the further potential of digital technologies. Finally, we derive insights into how users and technologies should interact and which tasks they should perform in practice. By gathering practical insights through interviews, we contribute to research on user-centered design and the integration of digital technologies in scenario-based foresight.