Climate Crisis: Systemic Aspects of De-Carbonization and Macro-financial Requirements
摘要
Urgent de-carbonization means a massive systemic change that requires a coherent approach for spurring global investments while reorientating them toward Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs). Both issues require a macroeconomic rebalancing with geographical and geopolitical impacts. Available model-based scenarios are dangerously misleading because they rely upon implicit assumptions that ignore the permacrisis with its growing uncertainty and the systemic and governance issues that plague the present unsustainable economic order. After giving the order of magnitude of the huge amounts of urgent investments required by global de-carbonization, this chapter warns against “greenwishing” (the illusion that low-cost solutions are at hand) and, more precisely, against two major flaws in the current financial system. First, even with a CO2 tax in view, private yields are unable to reorient investments to de-carbonization on time. Second, the asymmetric International Monetary System is unable to ensure the capital inflows necessary to close the estimated funding gap in the EMDEs. This assessment implies the need for a multilateral intervention at two levels: (i) to compensate today’s private yields in investments that abate greenhouse gases, because CO2 taxation, which needs to be slowly progressive, is unable to compensate ex ante the too high uncertain expectations on de-carbonization investments; and (ii) to issue a safe asset at the multilateral level, creating a global Lender-of-Last-Resort able to manage global liquidity, solving the Triffin Dilemma.