Systemic Potential Aspects of CBDCs
摘要
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) appear as a necessary step for preserving monetary sovereignty and seizing the benefits of digitalization for the efficiency of payments and financial inclusion. Their blockchain technology permits significantly faster, safer, cheaper payments than cash or bank accounts, particularly for cross-border payments. They will probably affect bank profitability, increasing competition for funding them and they will also increase the effects of interest rate adjustments on the economy (higher efficiency of monetary policy). But, more importantly, CBDCs carry the necessary potential to shake up the status quo of the international monetary system thanks to their technological properties. Basically, CBDCs eradicate the difference between domestic and cross-border transactions, eliminating the intermediary costs, risks (credit and liquidity risks), and delays required by the traditional cross-border payments. Moreover, they might act as a systemic “game-changer” by triggering two mutually supportive developments: (i) a strong increase in currency substitution implying higher exchange-rate volatility and (ii) a fast-growing demand for digital SDRs that will become costless by bundling and unbundling their five CBDCs components, therefore providing the most competitive safe asset and the best vehicle for the Forex and “repo” transactions. This e-SDR could become the missing tool for stabilizing global liquidity and emerge as a multilateral reserve currency, which would upgrade the IMF into a global Lender-of-Last-Resort. The IMF could issue or withdraw e-SDRs for stabilizing global liquidity, and the costly Triffin Dilemma could be efficiently solved.