In this chapter, we discuss how crop production, land use, and carbon emissions in Brazil are influenced by the interaction of a global crop price shock with domestic transportation infrastructure investments. The grid-resolving feature of SIMPLE-G-Brazil provides a framework for simulating impacts from multiscale shocks and capturing the spatial heterogeneity and spillover effects of results within the country. First, we illustrate this research question with a simplified two-region economic framework, which provides qualitative implications of the interactive effects to be checked with SIMPLE-G-Brazil. Then, we introduce the model structure and data sources used in SIMPLE-G-Brazil and focus on the two new modules—a transportation cost module and a novel cropland supply module—that differentiate SIMPLE-G-Brazil from the basic SIMPLE-G framework. Simulation results indicate that farm-gate crop prices increase in response to an increase in global crop prices, boosting cropland and crop output. However, the rise in farm-gate crop prices hinges on the transportation cost from the farm to the port. Public investment in transport infrastructure reduces these costs, particularly for more remote locations. This reconfiguration of production has important implications for the environment.

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The Role of Transportation Infrastructure Expansion in the Transmission of Global Crop Price Shocks to the Brazilian Agriculture

  • Zhan Wang

摘要

In this chapter, we discuss how crop production, land use, and carbon emissions in Brazil are influenced by the interaction of a global crop price shock with domestic transportation infrastructure investments. The grid-resolving feature of SIMPLE-G-Brazil provides a framework for simulating impacts from multiscale shocks and capturing the spatial heterogeneity and spillover effects of results within the country. First, we illustrate this research question with a simplified two-region economic framework, which provides qualitative implications of the interactive effects to be checked with SIMPLE-G-Brazil. Then, we introduce the model structure and data sources used in SIMPLE-G-Brazil and focus on the two new modules—a transportation cost module and a novel cropland supply module—that differentiate SIMPLE-G-Brazil from the basic SIMPLE-G framework. Simulation results indicate that farm-gate crop prices increase in response to an increase in global crop prices, boosting cropland and crop output. However, the rise in farm-gate crop prices hinges on the transportation cost from the farm to the port. Public investment in transport infrastructure reduces these costs, particularly for more remote locations. This reconfiguration of production has important implications for the environment.