Free Trade Is Not Free: Why Deglobalization Is (Unfortunately) Here to Stay
摘要
A growing body of experts has identified the shift toward deglobalization as a major threat to both economic prosperity and the international cooperation that has long characterized the “liberal world order.” They contend that policymakers have failed to comprehend the extraordinary positive-sum nature of international trade. We call this narrative into question and argue that free-trade advocates have frequently ignored the substantial transaction costs underpinning global commerce, especially those subsidized by the United States. We claim US policies supporting globalization after WWII, and up until recently, were broadly consistent with the country’s vital national security objectives. Those broad objectives have shifted as a result of structural changes in geopolitical dynamics, technology, military costs, and the US’s own fiscal capacity. In sum, the costs of subsidizing global trade have been increasing, while the expected benefits of globalization have fallen for the United States. For these reasons, we argue deglobalization is here to stay.